New Jersey added 7,500 non-farm jobs in July and unemployment held steady at 4.9% according to July’s DOL report.

Most of the growth came from professional/business services (+7,700 jobs) and leisure/hospitality (+3,000 jobs). These numbers were somewhat offset by hits in the public sector, where payrolls fell by 5,600.

The numbers paint a steady picture but another report raises questions about what’s ahead.

Rutgers R/ECON Summer 2025 Forecast puts a little gloom on the scenery- expecting New Jersey’s economy to grow by 0.5% in 2025, slowing to 0.4% in 2026 before a (modest) rebound in 2027.

This is on top of an unemployment rate that’s projected to climb to about 5.2% by 2026 (4.7% this year).

When we compare NJ to what is going on nationally, we find the added jobs aren’t enough to keep pace.  NJ has a higher unemployment rate with less desirable GDP and Unemployment projections when compared to the country as a whole.

NJ’s August numbers are expected to be out on 09/19.

References:

• https://www.nj.gov/labor/lwdhome/press/2025/20250313_employmentjanuary.shtml

• https://www.nj.gov/labor/lwdhome/press/2025/20250717_June_Jobs.shtml

• https://www.nj.gov/labor/lwdhome/press/2025/20250814_Jobs.shtml

• https://ycharts.com/indicators/new_jersey_unemployment_rate

• https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE

• https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

• https://www.reuters.com/business/us-unemployment-rate-near-4-year-high-labor-market-hits-stall-speed-2025-09-05/

• https://policylab.rutgers.edu/publication/report-release-r-econ-forecast-summer-2025/

• https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO

• https://www.oecd.org/economic-outlook/

• https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcprojtabl20250612.htm

• https://www.marketwatch.com/story/imf-lifts-u-s-growth-outlook-on-lower-tariffs-and-upbeat-markets-441b970a

• https://time.com/7290808/trump-tariffs-oecd-economic-forecast/

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